# Vitawerx: model workings

How every dollar figure in the Vitawerx Search & AI strategy report (22 October 2026) was built, step by
step, so you or your own AI assistant can recompute it. The market, the clicks and the share are
**non-branded** and **Australian**. The value of a click comes from **Shopify** (sales by referring
channel = google, the last referrer on the order, October 2025 to September 2026), scaled to non-branded
Australian search with ratios measured in GA4. It covers the **online store only**: Woolworths and other
retail sales sit outside the search model. Every headline dollar is **gross** (Shopify sales, before
returns), in AUD; net figures remove the **1.48%** of gross sales Shopify records as returned.

GA4 on this store reports revenue in **US dollars**, so no GA4 dollar figure enters the model. GA4 is used
only for currency-free ratios (conversion rate against conversion rate, order value against order value,
visits against clicks), plus one reconciliation in section 3 at a stated exchange rate.

## 1. The inputs, and where each one comes from

| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Measured keyword core | 29,380 searches / month | Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush and DataForSEO for Australia, median of three, October 2026. Core = terms you sell with direct buying intent; plural and word-order variants counted once. The full measured basket is 114,885 / month |
| Long-tail factor | x 1.35 | Standard Team Empathy uplift from the measured core to the long tail around it |
| Winnable click share | 20% of searches | The share of searches that end in an organic click once ads, shopping carousels and AI answers take theirs |
| Australian clicks, all | 3,794 a year | Search Console, vitawerx.com (domain property), 19 Oct 2025 to 19 Oct 2026, country = Australia |
| Branded Australian clicks (excluded) | 2,105 a year (55.5%) | Queries containing Vitawerx, Vita Werx or Vitaworks, a misspelling (vitawrex, vitawerks, viwerx) or a truncation (vita chocolate, vita protein). A further 3 clicks on other brands' names are also excluded |
| Non-branded Australian clicks today | 1,686 a year | 150 on named non-branded queries + 1,536 on queries Google withholds (long tail, counted as non-branded). The withheld share is high here: 91% of today's non-branded clicks and 44% of all site clicks |
| Shopify Google search channel | 8,649 sessions, 262 orders, A$37,849.92 gross | Shopify, October 2025 to September 2026, all markets (Australia = 97% of gross sales), branded and non-branded together: conversion 262 / 8,649 = 3.0293% (shown as 3.03%), order value A$37,849.92 / 262 = A$144.47 |
| GA4 non-branded Australian conversion ratio | x 0.9255 | GA4 non-branded Australian Google organic conversion (3.4636%; split in section 5) / GA4 Google organic conversion, Australia, the same market as the numerator, applied to Shopify because 97% of its sales ship within Australia (164 / 4,382 = 3.7426%) |
| Non-branded conversion rate | 2.8034% (shown as 2.80%) | 3.0293% x 0.9255: Shopify's Google search rate scaled by the GA4 non-branded Australian ratio |
| Non-branded order value | A$144.4653 (shown as A$144.47) | Shopify's Google search order value, held as measured. GA4 puts non-branded Australian order value 0.47% above its all-market Google organic figure; the model does not lift Shopify's order value on that, so the ratio is held at 1 |
| Visits per Search Console click | 1.1570 (shown as 1.157) | GA4 non-branded Australian Google organic visits (1,951, section 5) / non-branded Australian Search Console clicks (1,686). Both are counts, so GA4's currency does not enter |
| Value per non-branded click | A$4.6860 (shown as A$4.69) | 2.8034% x 1.1570 x A$144.4653 |
| First-order share | 46.6% | Shopify Google search channel: 122 new-customer orders / 262 orders (all markets, branded and non-branded) |
| Return rate | 1.48% | Measured: Shopify returns A$2,837.15 / gross sales A$191,364.47, October 2025 to September 2026, all channels |

**The higher band, and why it is not used.** Shopify's own sessions per Search Console click are
8,649 / 4,834 = 1.79 (both all markets). On that basis a click is worth
2.8034% x 1.7892 x A$144.47 = **A$7.25**. It is left out because Shopify's
"Search > google" sessions include visits from Google's free Shopping listings, which Search Console's web
search clicks do not count, so the ratio overstates visits per search click. The model uses the lower
A$4.69.

**Why Shopify's google channel is read as organic.** Paid Google visits completed 0 checkouts on
609 sessions in the same window, and the 262 google orders match the 263 checkouts from Search > google sessions.

## 2. The market chain

1. 29,380 x 1.35 x 12 = **475,956 searches / year**
2. x 0.2 = **95,191 winnable organic clicks / year** (7,933 a month)
3. 1,686 / 95,191 = **1.77% share today**
4. 1% of the pool = **952 clicks / year** = 30.9 orders = **A$4,461 gross / year** (A$4,394 net of Shopify's 1.5% returns)

For context, the full Australian category, sized from DataForSEO keyword suggestions (29 product seeds,
brand and off-topic terms removed), scaled to the triangulated basis (x 0.95) and with the long tail
(x 1.35), is about 140,455 searches a month. The model uses only the measured core.

## 3. The scenarios

Each case grows the share of the winnable pool; the value per click is held at today's measured figure.
Revenue = clicks x A$4.6860. Orders = clicks x 1.1570 visits per click x 2.8034%.

| Case | Share | Clicks / yr | Orders / yr | New customers / yr | Non-branded revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (net of returns) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 1.77% | 1,686 | 55 | 25 | A$7,901 | - | - |
| Conservative | 5% | 4,760 | 154 | 72 | A$22,303 | +A$14,402 | +A$14,189 |
| Mid | 9% | 8,567 | 278 | 129 | A$40,146 | +A$32,245 | +A$31,767 |
| High | 13% | 12,375 | 401 | 187 | A$57,988 | +A$50,087 | +A$49,345 |

Conservative, mid and high are 5%, 9% and 13% of the pool. "New revenue" is the rounded case minus
the rounded today figure. The today row prices the measured clicks: 1,686 x A$4.6860 = A$7,901.

**Why the high case stops at 13%.** It means 1,031 non-branded clicks a month. Added to today's
175 branded Australian clicks a month, that is 1,207 organic clicks a month in total. The
smallest comparable Australian store in the competitor set is estimated at about 1,238 organic visits a month, branded and
non-branded together (DataForSEO's modelled estimate, 5 comparable stores, October 2026), so the high case stays under
what a comparable store already earns, compared like for like.

**Adjacent territory (directional, not in the table).** Broad and mixed-intent searches you sell into
(82,955 a month, most of it in High-protein snacking with 55,450 a month: protein bars and
high-protein snacks) would add about 24,190 clicks and A$113,352 gross a year at the mid-case
9% share, if those visitors bought at the core rate. That rate is not measured for this traffic, so the figure is a
direction only and sits outside every case above.

**Reconciling Today with GA4.** GA4 attributes US$7,210.96 to the same non-branded Australian clicks
(section 5); at 1.437 AUD to the US dollar that is A$10,362. The Shopify-based Today (A$7,901) is
23.8% lower. On the whole channel, Shopify credits Google with A$37,850 against GA4's
US$18,326.95 (A$26,336 at the same rate), 43.7% more; 262 orders vs 172. Today
sits below GA4 rather than above it because of the visits-per-click choice in section 1: at Shopify's own
1.79 visits per click, Today would be 1,686 x A$7.2462 = A$12,217, 17.9% above GA4 and
inside the channel gap. The model carries the lower figure.

## 4. The value ladder (new customers only, Shopify cohorts)

The scenario table counts every non-branded order, first and repeat. The ladder counts only the new
customers each case brings (orders x 46.6%), so repeat revenue is never counted twice.

- **First-order value: A$103.50.** Shopify customer cohorts, store-wide, month 0: A$103.50 per customer (715 customers), x 1 (the non-branded order-value ratio, held at 1 as in section 1).
- **12-month value: A$127.00.** Same cohorts, cumulative to month 11: A$127.00 store-wide. The all-cohorts figure includes cohorts that have not yet reached month 11, so it understates; the October 2025 cohort, the only one with a full twelve months (63 customers), is at A$143.00.
- **No lifetime figure.** Shopify's cohort grid stops at month 11, so nothing past twelve months is measured and none is shown. Google search takes 1.15 returning-customer orders for every new one (140 of the 262 orders are not first orders), so value likely continues past a year.
- The cohort values are store-wide, across every channel, so they sit below the Google search order value of A$144.47.
- Ladder figures are gross; net of returns each is 1.5% lower.

| Case | New customers / yr | First-order revenue / yr (gross) | 12-month value / yr (gross) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 25 | A$2,636 | A$3,234 |
| Conservative | 72 | A$7,440 | A$9,130 |
| Mid | 129 | A$13,393 | A$16,434 |
| High | 187 | A$19,345 | A$23,738 |

## 5. How the branded / non-branded split was made (GA4)

GA4 does not label orders branded or non-branded, so its Australian Google organic figures (Organic Search,
source google, 19 Oct 2025 to 19 Oct 2026: 4,382 visits, 164 orders, US$17,420.40) were split with two measured inputs:

1. Branded share of Australian organic visits = Search Console's branded share of Australian clicks (55.5%).
2. Branded visits convert 1.145x non-branded and order 0.992x the value, read from GA4 (Australian Google organic visits landing on the homepage, where branded searches land, against every other landing page, twelve months).
3. Solved so visits, orders and revenue add back to GA4 exactly: branded 2,431 visits, 96.4 orders, US$10,209.44, at 3.966%; non-branded 1,951 visits, 67.6 orders, US$7,210.96, at 3.464%.

Only currency-free results from this split reach the model: the non-branded conversion rate relative to GA4's
Google organic channel (section 1) and the 1,951 non-branded visits behind the visits-per-click figure. Cross-check:
GA4's direct landing-page revenue split puts non-branded at 50.5% of revenue against 41.4% here; the model builds on the
lower, branded-click figure.

## 6. The compounding curve (mid case arriving)

0%, 10%, 35%, 70% and 100% of the mid case's new revenue (A$32,245) live at today, month 3, month 6, month 9 and month 12.

| Point | Non-branded gross / yr |
|---|---|
| Today | A$7,901 |
| Month 3 | A$11,125 |
| Month 6 | A$19,187 |
| Month 9 | A$30,473 |
| Month 12 | A$40,146 |

## 7. Smell tests run before publishing

- The derived non-branded rate (2.80%) sits below Shopify's blended Google search rate (3.03%), and in GA4 non-branded converts below branded (3.464% vs 3.966%).
- The home market converts above the secondary one: GA4 organic Australia 3.85% vs New Zealand 0.83%. Only Australia is modelled.
- Sales are concentrated in sale months: November 2025 was A$79,680 of A$191,364 gross (42%). Every rate is taken over the full twelve months, so sale and non-sale months are both inside it.
- Twelve-month windows on every input (no seasonal slice): Shopify October 2025 to September 2026; Search Console and GA4 19 Oct 2025 to 19 Oct 2026 (18 days offset).
- GA4 organic visits per Search Console click run between 1.09 and 1.41 month by month across the window, so there is no tracking break inside it.
- The high case (1,031 non-branded clicks a month) stays under the smallest comparable Australian store's estimated organic traffic (about 1,238 a month).

## 8. What the model leaves out (all upside)

- **AI prompts.** The AI-chat questions in the library are counted separately and not priced.
- **Offshore demand.** About 22% of your Google clicks come from outside Australia; none of it is modelled.
- **Adjacent demand.** Broad terms you sell into with mixed intent sit outside the core (the directional line in section 3).
- **Retail.** Woolworths and other stockists' sales are outside the search model.
- **Value past twelve months.** Not measured by Shopify's cohort grid, so not counted.
- **Conversion improvement.** Held flat at today's figure.

## 9. Known limitations

- Shopify's Google search row is all markets and blends branded with non-branded; the GA4 split converts it to non-branded Australia, so the derived rate inherits the GA4 split method (section 5).
- 91% of today's non-branded Australian clicks are on queries Google withholds; they are counted as non-branded because branded searches are a handful of short, frequent queries that Google reports by name.
- The cohort values and the first-order share are store-wide or channel-wide, not non-branded-Australia specific. Returning orders are counted as orders minus new-customer orders.
- The Search Console query-by-country export is capped at 50,000 rows, so a small share of named Australian clicks sits in the withheld remainder (counted as non-branded).
- The competitor traffic figures are DataForSEO's modelled estimates, for comparison only.